


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- After surging 10% in October, sales of existing homes jumped again in November, growing 7.4% compared with October to an annualized rate of 6.54 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors.
"This clearly is a rush of first-time buyers not wanting to miss out on the tax credit," said NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun.
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During my real estate conference in Atlantic City, I attended a seminar with Mr Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtor's chief economist, who shared some very interesting and optimistic information with us.
I will share with you my notes from this discussion with him.
He said that in a normal housing market, supply is usually at 6 months - that has been the historic average. He said that currently, we are trending down from 7 months and are very close to a normal housing market. Of course every market is different, but this is a positive sign when looking at the housing market as a whole.
He also said in a very convincing tone "the worst is over, momentum is steadily building." - Things that make you go hmmmm right? He said many times that we already hit bottom. Buyers that are waiting to see if prices will continue to go down, should buy now before news gets out and other buyer's figure it out or it will be too late soon.
He also made an interesting point and said that "home values have over-corrected." What does this mean? Well, that with prices dropping quickly and steadily over the last year or so, they have actually dipped too low according to historic trend lines. Which he also pointed out that our recession was right on schedule and we are repeating history. Because of this over-correction, he and his team made a strong case to the Obama administration regarding the extension of the home buyer tax credit and how this could help keep values from dropping further at levels that would be difficult to recover from. It seems that the home buyer tax credit is doing it's job, with a large percentage of sales across the board are from buyer's that are looking to cash in on the credit.
He also quoted that the NAR, Case Schiller, and FHFA (housing measure) all show that month to month, we are seeing price stabilization. He even felt confident enough to say that 'buyers buying today's market, are not losing money'.
We'll be seeing changes in FHA guidelines with tighter restrictions because of the large number of delinquencies in loans. They are considering raising the credit score requirement as well as lowering the loan limits as a way of preventing foreclosures in the future.
Lawrence Yun, told us that he predicts a 4% home price growth in 2010.
He predicts home mortgage interest rates to rise to 5.5% . He added that our budget deficits need to be reduced in order to keep rates low, and with Americans seeing these numbers rising not lowering any time soon.. where do you think rates will go..
When he speaks, people listen. Unfortunately he spoke so fast and went through a gazillion graphs that I was jotting down everything I could but missed some of his other points.. Like how he was explaining that if housing starts (new construction) stay low we could see a housing shortage in 2011 or 2012 - which will leave a big demand for homes.. I was interested in his interpretation of this because it could mean some lucrative opportunities should be had now by builders..
So here is some interesting information coming from a credible source, not just me and other real estate agents saying now might be the best time for you to buy. I hope this provides some new light for you - as clearly, it isn't all doom and gloom and we have crawled out of our buyers market it seems..
Home sellers and potential buyers nationwide welcomed the recent news that Congress had decided to extend and greatly expand the Home Buyer's tax credit in an attempt to further stimulate the economy. Not only does the new legislation extend the existing first time buyer's credit until mid-next year, but it also creates a tax credit for qualified repeat buyers. The change in legislation will relieve home buyers scrambling to meet the original deadline and may encourage a wider range of buyers to consider purchasing a residence.
What Has Changed with the New Law?
Deadline: Whereas the original tax credit was set to expire on December 1st, buyers now have additional time to find their dream home! Buyers must have a contract to purchase a residence in place before May 1 2010, and the deal must close before July 1, 2010 in order to take advantage of the tax credits. At this stage, no additional extensions are anticipated.
Sale Price Limit: A ceiling has now been set for the sales price of homes eligible for the tax credit. For purchases made after Nov. 6, the tax credit is only available for any homes costing less than $800,000.
$6,500 Credit for Repeat Buyers: Homeowners considering a new home purchase may now be eligible for their own tax credit. Taxpayers who have lived in the same residence for five consecutive years out of the past eight can now qualify for a tax credit of as much as 10% of the purchase price of a new principal residence (up to a maximum $6,500). The new residence need not be a single-family home, and there is no requirement that the new residence must cost more than the previous residence. Note: the credit for repeat buyers does not apply to homes purchased prior to November 6th of this year.
More Accommodating Income Requirements: The tax credit was designed to phase out based on income levels, meaning the amount of the tax credit decreases as the filer's income approaches the maximum limit. Under the previous format, income restrictions called for the tax credit to begin phasing out for individuals making $75,000 annually, (modified adjusted gross income*), with no credit available to individuals making $95,000 or more. For married couples filing jointly, this "phasing out" range was $150,000 - $170,000 under the previous law. The income limits set within the new law are far more liberal. For single filers, the credits now begin phasing out at $125,000 up to $145,000 of modified adjusted gross income. For married couples filing jointly, the range begins at $225,000 and ends at $245,000.
The existing phase-out ranges of $75,000 to $95,000 or $150,000 to $170,000 for joint filers still apply to purchases on or before Nov. 6, 2009.
(*For most people, modified adjusted gross income will be the same as adjusted gross income.)
Anti-Abuse Measures: The new law contains anti-abuse measures designed to address and prevent fraudulent applications for the home-buyer tax credit. Persons who are under the age of 18 or who are claimed as dependants by other taxpayers will not be qualified for the tax credit program. Taxpayers taking the credit will also have to furnish proof of purchase. After filling out IRS Form 5405 to determine their tax credit amount, buyers must attach a copy of their HUD-1 settlement form (i.e. closing statement) as proof of the completed home purchase.
Additional Limitations on Buyer-Seller Relationship: Under the previous law, buyers were not eligible for the tax credit when purchasing a home from a lineal ancestor or descendent. The new law applying to purchases made after Nov. 6 also prohibits buyers from taking the credit if the home is purchased from a spouse or the spouse's lineal relatives.
What Aspects of the Original Credit Remain?
Up to $8,000 Credit for New Buyers: First-time home buyers remain eligible for a credit of as much as 10% of the purchase price of a new principal residence, up to a maximum $8,000. "First-time" is still defined as buyers who haven't owned a principal residence for a three year period prior to the home purchase (including both partners of a married couple).
Three Year "Principle Residence" Window: Neither the New Home Buyer Credit nor the Repeat Home Buyer Credit needs to be repaid provided that the buyer(s) reside in the home for a period of three years following the purchase. If within 36 months of the date of purchase the property is no longer used as the taxpayer's principal residence, the taxpayer is required to repay the credit. Repayment of the full amount of the credit must be included with the income tax return for the year in which the home ceased to be the taxpayer's principal residence. The full amount of the credit is reflected as additional tax on that year's tax return.
Tax Credit <> Not Deduction: The credits offer a refundable dollar-for-dollar reduction in what the taxpayer owes. For example, a taxpayer who owes $10,000 and qualifies for the full $8,000 tax credit would only owe the IRS $2,000. This offers a greater savings than a tax deduction.
The term "refundable" means that either of the home buyer credits can be claimed even if the taxpayer has little to no federal income tax liability to offset. If the qualifying credit exceeds the taxpayer's liability, the government would refund the excess portion of the tax credit. For example, if you qualify for an $8,000 credit but only owe $5,000 in tax, you could receive a $3,000 check from the Internal Revenue Service.
Tax Return Filing Options: 2009 home buyers may claim the credit on either their 2008 or 2009 returns, while 2010 buyers can claim the credit on either their 2009 or 2010 returns.